Bemrah N, Bergis H, Colmin C, Beaufort A, Millemann Y, Dufour B, Benet J J, Cerf O, Sanaa M
Laboratory of Epidemiology, and Risk Analysis, Alfort Veterinary School, Maisons-Alfort, France.
Int J Food Microbiol. 2003 Jan 15;80(1):17-30. doi: 10.1016/s0168-1605(02)00145-9.
The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) approach recommended by the Codex Alimentarius Commission was used to assess the risk of human salmonellosis from the consumption of 'cordon bleu', a specific turkey product, in collective catering establishments (CCEs) of a French department. The complete process was modeled and simulated, from the initial storage in the CCE freezer to the consumption, using a Monte Carlo simulation software. Data concerning the prevalence of contaminated 'cordon bleu', the level of contamination of Salmonella, the cooking and storage process were collected from 21 CCEs and 8 retailers of 'cordon bleu' in the selected department. Thermal inactivation kinetics for Salmonella were established to estimate the effect of heat treatment on the concentration in the product and to calculate the dose that could be ingested by the consumer. The Beta-Poisson dose-response model of Rose and Gerba [Water Science and Technology 24 (1991) 29] with the specific parameters for Salmonella was used to estimate the probability of infection related to the ingestion of a particular dose and a factor was applied to estimate the probability of illness from ingestion. The individual risk of salmonellosis, the risk of outbreak and the number of cases were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method. The risk of salmonellosis was close to zero when the 'cordons bleus' were cooked in the oven. Therefore, the risk was calculated for the fryer cooking since the insufficient cooking time observed was, sometimes, at the origin of low temperatures (37-89 degrees C). The influence of both the initial concentration of Salmonella in the product and the heat storage before consumption on the final risk was studied. For a high initial concentration of Salmonella in the product, when the 'cordons bleus' are fryer cooked, the average risk of salmonellosis was equal to 3.95 x 10(-3) without storage before consumption and 2.8 x 10(-4) if the product is consumed after storage. This paper presents the results of the QRA and discusses risk management options to minimize the risk of salmonellosis.
食品法典委员会推荐的定量风险评估（QRA）方法，被用于评估法国某省集体餐饮机构（CCE）中食用一种特定火鸡产品“蓝带鸡胸肉”导致人类感染沙门氏菌病的风险。使用蒙特卡洛模拟软件，对从CCE冷冻库的初始储存到消费的整个过程进行建模和模拟。从选定省份的21家CCE和8家“蓝带鸡胸肉”零售商收集了有关受污染“蓝带鸡胸肉”的流行率、沙门氏菌污染水平、烹饪和储存过程的数据。建立了沙门氏菌的热失活动力学，以估计热处理对产品中浓度的影响，并计算消费者可能摄入的剂量。采用Rose和Gerba [《水科学与技术》24 (1991) 29] 的β-泊松剂量反应模型及沙门氏菌的特定参数，来估计与摄入特定剂量相关的感染概率，并应用一个因子来估计摄入导致患病的概率。使用蒙特卡洛模拟方法计算了沙门氏菌病的个体风险、暴发风险和病例数。当“蓝带鸡胸肉”在烤箱中烹饪时，沙门氏菌病的风险接近于零。因此，计算了油炸烹饪的风险，因为观察到的烹饪时间不足有时是低温（37-89摄氏度）的根源。研究了产品中沙门氏菌的初始浓度和消费前的热储存对最终风险的影响。对于产品中沙门氏菌的高初始浓度，当“蓝带鸡胸肉”采用油炸烹饪时，消费前无储存情况下沙门氏菌病的平均风险等于3.95×10⁻³，若产品储存后消费则为2.8×10⁻⁴。本文介绍了定量风险评估的结果，并讨论了将沙门氏菌病风险降至最低的风险管理选项。
