卧底警察对枪支经销商的突击行动对向罪犯供应新枪支的影响。
Effects of undercover police stings of gun dealers on the supply of new guns to criminals.
作者信息
Webster D W, Bulzacchelli M T, Zeoli A M, Vernick J S
机构信息
Center for Gun Policy and Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205-1996, USA.
出版信息
Inj Prev. 2006 Aug;12(4):225-30. doi: 10.1136/ip.2006.012120.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the effects of undercover police stings and lawsuits against gun dealers suspected of facilitating illegal gun sales in three US cities (Chicago, Detroit, Gary) on the flow of new firearms to criminals.
METHODS
An interrupted time series design and negative binomial regression analyses were used to test for temporal change in the recovery of guns used in crimes within one year of retail sale in both intervention and comparison cities.
RESULTS
The stings were associated with an abrupt 46.4% reduction in the flow of new guns to criminals in Chicago (95% confidence interval, -58.6% to -30.5%), and with a gradual reduction in new crime guns recovered in Detroit. There was no significant change associated with the stings in Gary, and no change in comparison cities that was coincident with the stings in Chicago and Detroit.
CONCLUSIONS
The announcement of police stings and lawsuits against suspect gun dealers appeared to have reduced the supply of new guns to criminals in Chicago significantly, and may have contributed to beneficial effects in Detroit. Given the important role that gun stores play in supplying guns to criminals in the US, further efforts of this type are warranted and should be evaluated.
目的
评估美国三个城市（芝加哥、底特律、加里）针对涉嫌协助非法枪支销售的枪支经销商开展的便衣警察突击行动及诉讼对流向犯罪分子的新枪支数量的影响。
方法
采用中断时间序列设计和负二项回归分析，以检验干预城市和对照城市在零售销售后一年内犯罪中使用的枪支回收率的时间变化。
结果
突击行动使芝加哥流向犯罪分子的新枪支数量突然减少了46.4%（95%置信区间，-58.6%至-30.5%），底特律新缴获的犯罪枪支数量逐渐减少。加里的突击行动未产生显著变化，与芝加哥和底特律突击行动同时期的对照城市也没有变化。
结论
针对可疑枪支经销商的警察突击行动及诉讼的宣布似乎显著减少了芝加哥流向犯罪分子的新枪支供应，并可能对底特律产生了有益影响。鉴于枪支商店在美国向犯罪分子供应枪支方面所起的重要作用，此类进一步努力是必要的，且应进行评估。
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