Jiménez-Martín Sergi, Labeaga José M, Prieto Cristina Vilaplana
Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.
Health Econ. 2006 Sep;15(9):1033-54. doi: 10.1002/hec.1163.
In this paper we estimate and validate a three-period sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions following a health/disability shock, using retrospective information from Spanish cross-section data. Central to the analysis are the effects of the various disabilities and their severity. We find that the probability of remaining employed decreases both with age and the severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity for older workers and none for prime-age workers. Suffering any kind of disability reduces the probability of being employed immediately prior to retirement age, and in such cases it is severity which is the strongest indicator. With respect to demographics, we find that female gender, having a retired spouse or being married all reduce the probabilities of both remaining in employment and returning to work following a spell of inactivity; in turn, principal breadwinner status, education and skill levels increase this likelihood.
在本文中，我们利用西班牙横截面数据中的回顾性信息，估计并验证了一个关于老年工人在健康/残疾冲击后劳动力转移的三阶段序贯模型。分析的核心是各种残疾的影响及其严重程度。我们发现，继续就业的概率会随着年龄和冲击的严重程度而降低。此外，我们发现老年工人的年龄与严重程度之间存在强烈的相互作用，而适龄工人则不存在这种相互作用。遭受任何一种残疾都会降低临近退休年龄时就业的概率，在这种情况下，严重程度是最强的指标。关于人口统计学特征，我们发现女性、有退休配偶或已婚都会降低继续就业和在一段非就业期后重返工作岗位的概率；反过来，主要养家糊口者身份、教育程度和技能水平则会增加这种可能性。
