Kippen Rebecca, Evans Ann, Gray Edith
Demography and Sociology Program, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
J Biosoc Sci. 2007 Jul;39(4):583-97. doi: 10.1017/S0021932006001477. Epub 2006 Sep 7.
This paper considers whether sex composition of existing children in Australian families is an important factor in parity progression. Using census data from 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001, women are linked with their co-resident children, allowing investigation of family sex composition and its changing impact over time on the propensity to have another child. The study finds that parents are much more likely to have a third and fourth birth if existing children are all of the same sex, indicating a strong preference for children of both sexes. This increased propensity has added around three per cent to the fertility of recent cohorts. The paper concludes with a discussion of the potential impact of sex-selection technologies on fertility. The authors argue that future widespread use of reliable sex-selection technologies might act to increase fertility in the short term, but would lead to a long-term reduction in fertility.
本文探讨澳大利亚家庭中现有子女的性别构成是否是生育胎次递进的一个重要因素。利用1981年、1986年、1991年、1996年和2001年的人口普查数据，将女性与其同住子女进行关联，从而能够研究家庭性别构成及其随时间变化对生育另一个孩子倾向的影响。研究发现，如果现有子女都是同性别的，父母生育第三胎和第四胎的可能性要大得多，这表明对子女两性都有强烈偏好。这种增加的生育倾向使近期队列的生育率提高了约3%。本文最后讨论了性别选择技术对生育率的潜在影响。作者认为，未来可靠的性别选择技术的广泛使用可能在短期内提高生育率，但从长期来看会导致生育率下降。
