Valentine Becquet, Nicolás Sacco, Ignacio Pardo
Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques (INED), France.
Pennsylvania State University, US.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2022 Jun;41(3):1295-1323. doi: 10.1007/s11113-021-09692-1. Epub 2022 Jan 19.
A preference for sons and a sex selection against females are widespread in vast regions of the world, including a great number of Asian and East European countries. However, while a robust son bias has been widely studied in several countries of these regions, much less attention has been given to other regions, such as Latin America. The aim of this paper is to compare gender preferences in twelve selected countries of Southeast Asia and Latin America at the beginning of the 21st century by calculating to what extent parents adapt their fertility behaviors to ensure the birth of a preferred sex. Using census data from Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-International (IPUMS-I), derived mostly from the 2010 round, we compute parity progression ratios with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and estimate Cox regressions to include control variables. The results focus on the probability of having a third child and show that a mixed composition of children (one boy and one girl) is the most widespread preference, except in Vietnam, where a heavy son preference can still be observed. The least preferred outcome varies between regions and countries, but it is most often two daughters.
对儿子的偏好以及针对女性的性别选择在世界广大地区普遍存在,包括许多亚洲和东欧国家。然而,虽然在这些地区的几个国家中,强烈的儿子偏好已得到广泛研究,但对其他地区,如拉丁美洲,关注却少得多。本文的目的是通过计算父母在多大程度上调整生育行为以确保生育出偏好性别的孩子,来比较21世纪初东南亚和拉丁美洲12个选定国家的性别偏好。利用主要来自2010年一轮的综合公共使用微观数据系列-国际版(IPUMS-I)的普查数据,我们用卡普兰-迈耶估计量计算生育递进比,并估计包含控制变量的考克斯回归。结果聚焦于生育第三个孩子的概率,表明子女的混合构成(一个男孩和一个女孩)是最普遍的偏好,越南除外,在越南仍可观察到强烈的儿子偏好。最不偏好的结果因地区和国家而异,但最常见的是两个女儿。