Johnson Dominic D P, McDermott Rose, Barrett Emily S, Cowden Jonathan, Wrangham Richard, McIntyre Matthew H, Peter Rosen Stephen
Society of Fellows and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, 222 Bendheim Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Oct 7;273(1600):2513-20. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3606.
Overconfidence has long been noted by historians and political scientists as a major cause of war. However, the origins of such overconfidence, and sources of variation, remain poorly understood. Mounting empirical studies now show that mentally healthy people tend to exhibit psychological biases that encourage optimism, collectively known as 'positive illusions'. Positive illusions are thought to have been adaptive in our evolutionary past because they served to cope with adversity, harden resolve, or bluff opponents. Today, however, positive illusions may contribute to costly conflicts and wars. Testosterone has been proposed as a proximate mediator of positive illusions, given its role in promoting dominance and challenge behaviour, particularly in men. To date, no studies have attempted to link overconfidence, decisions about war, gender, and testosterone. Here we report that, in experimental wargames: (i) people are overconfident about their expectations of success; (ii) those who are more overconfident are more likely to attack; (iii) overconfidence and attacks are more pronounced among males than females; and (iv) testosterone is related to expectations of success, but not within gender, so its influence on overconfidence cannot be distinguished from any other gender specific factor. Overall, these results constitute the first empirical support of recent theoretical work linking overconfidence and war.
长期以来，历史学家和政治学家都指出过度自信是战争的一个主要原因。然而，这种过度自信的起源以及变化的根源仍未得到充分理解。越来越多的实证研究表明，心理健康的人往往会表现出鼓励乐观主义的心理偏差，统称为“积极错觉”。积极错觉被认为在我们的进化历史中具有适应性，因为它们有助于应对逆境、强化决心或唬住对手。然而如今，积极错觉可能会导致代价高昂的冲突和战争。鉴于睾酮在促进支配和挑战行为方面的作用，尤其是在男性中，它被认为是积极错觉的一个直接调节因素。迄今为止，尚无研究尝试将过度自信、战争决策、性别和睾酮联系起来。在此我们报告，在实验性军事演习中：（i）人们对自己成功的预期过度自信；（ii）那些过度自信的人更有可能发动攻击；（iii）过度自信和攻击行为在男性中比在女性中更为明显；（iv）睾酮与成功预期有关，但不存在性别差异，因此其对过度自信的影响无法与任何其他性别特异性因素区分开来。总体而言，这些结果构成了将过度自信与战争联系起来的近期理论工作的首个实证支持。
