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丹麦奶牛晚期流产的流行病学研究,2000年7月 - 2003年8月

An epidemiologic study of late-term abortions in dairy cattle in Denmark, July 2000-August 2003.

作者信息

Carpenter Tim E, Chrièl Mariann, Andersen Mette M, Wulfson Liana, Jensen Astrid M, Houe Hans, Greiner Matthias

机构信息

Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.

出版信息

Prev Vet Med. 2006 Dec 18;77(3-4):215-29. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2006.07.005. Epub 2006 Sep 7.

Abstract

Abortion in dairy cows in well-managed dairies is not common but differences have been reported probably due to variation in animal health, nutrition and management, as well as difficulties in observing the aborted material. A 38-month study of 507 large Danish dairy herds revealed 3354 late-term abortions and 224,419 calvings were recorded. During the study period, a total of 3717 submissions were made to the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF). A broad spectrum of abortive agents was isolated but none were found to be statistically associated with abortions. The number of abortions in a month on a dairy was significantly (P<0.001) associated with the number of cows in the third trimester but explained only 11% (R(adj)(2)=0.114) of the variability of the reported abortions. A total of 23 herds (4.5%) reported 531 abortions (15.8%). Although a marginally significant (P=0.11) risk of increased abortions was found to exist in bovine viral diarrhea virus- (BVDV) infected herds, it could be at least partially explained by additional calvings in those herds. Temporal correlation between inseminations and abortions was statistically significant (P<0.001) with the highest correlation (r=0.47-0.51) after lagging abortions on insemination by 6-8 months. No indication of spatial clustering was detected for either specific-abortogenic pathogens or high aborting dairies using either Cuzick-Edwards' (P>0.17) or spatial scan tests (P>0.23). Ederer-Myers-Mantel test was applied to 3 years of data on the highest aborting dairies and showed that July had nearly double the expected number of maximum monthly abortions (P<0.001). These findings provide further insight into the reported abortion pattern in Danish dairies and may facilitate planning future control programs.

摘要

在管理良好的奶牛场中,奶牛流产并不常见,但据报道存在差异,这可能是由于动物健康、营养和管理方面的差异,以及观察流产物质存在困难。一项对507个丹麦大型奶牛群进行的为期38个月的研究显示,记录到3354例晚期流产和224419次产犊。在研究期间,共有3717份样本提交给了丹麦食品与兽医研究所(DFVF)。分离出了多种流产病原体,但未发现任何一种与流产存在统计学关联。一个奶牛场一个月内的流产数量与妊娠晚期奶牛数量显著相关(P<0.001),但仅解释了报告流产变异性的11%(调整后R²=0.114)。共有23个牛群(4.5%)报告了531例流产(15.8%)。尽管在感染牛病毒性腹泻病毒(BVDV)的牛群中发现存在流产增加的边缘显著风险(P=0.11),但这至少可以部分由这些牛群中额外的产犊来解释。配种与流产之间的时间相关性具有统计学意义(P<0.001),在将流产时间滞后于配种6 - 8个月后,相关性最高(r = 0.47 - 0.51)。使用Cuzick - Edwards检验(P>0.17)或空间扫描检验(P>0.23),未检测到特定流产病原体或高流产率奶牛场存在空间聚集迹象。对流产率最高的奶牛场的3年数据应用Ederer - Myers - Mantel检验,结果显示7月的每月最大流产预期数量几乎翻倍(P<0.001)。这些发现为丹麦奶牛场报告的流产模式提供了进一步的见解,并可能有助于规划未来的控制计划。

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