af Wåhlberg Anders E
Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Int J Occup Saf Ergon. 2006;12(3):281-96. doi: 10.1080/10803548.2006.11076690.
A study was undertaken to investigate whether driver celeration (overall mean speed change) behavior can predict traffic accident involvement. Also, to test whether acceleration, deceleration or the combined celeration measure was the better predictor. Bus driver celeration behavior was measured repeatedly in real traffic, driving en route, and correlated with accidents for which the drivers were deemed at least partly responsible. Correlations around .20 were found in several samples between celeration behavior and culpable accidents for a 2-year period. The results show that although celeration behavior is only semi-stable over time, it predicts with some accuracy individual accident involvement over 2 years. The predictive power of acceleration and deceleration was slightly lower than the combined measure, in accordance with theory. The correlations found were strong enough to warrant the use of celeration behavior as a predictive variable for transportation companies in their safety work.
开展了一项研究，以调查驾驶员加速度（总体平均速度变化）行为是否能够预测交通事故的发生。此外，还要测试加速度、减速度或综合加速度测量指标哪一个是更好的预测指标。在实际交通中、行车途中对公交驾驶员的加速度行为进行了反复测量，并将其与驾驶员至少需承担部分责任的事故相关联。在几个样本中发现，在两年时间里，加速度行为与有责事故之间的相关性约为0.20。结果表明，虽然加速度行为随时间仅具有半稳定性，但它在一定程度上能够准确预测个体在两年内发生事故的情况。根据理论，加速度和减速度的预测能力略低于综合测量指标。所发现的相关性足够强，足以保证运输公司在安全工作中将加速度行为用作预测变量。
