af Wåhlberg Anders E
Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Int J Occup Saf Ergon. 2007;13(2):159-71. doi: 10.1080/10803548.2007.11076717.
Driver celeration (speed change) behavior of bus drivers measured a number of times was used to predict their culpable accidents over increasing time periods. It was found that predictive power was considerable (>.30 correlation) over 5 years of time with aggregated celeration (mean of repeated measurements) as independent variables, and there were also indications that power reached even further, although too low Ns made these results unreliable. Similarly, there were indications of even stronger correlations with increased aggregation of celeration values. The results were discussed in terms of the methodology needed to bring out such results, and the stability of accident-causing behavior over time.
多次测量的公交司机驾驶加速度（速度变化）行为被用于预测他们在越来越长的时间段内的有责事故。研究发现，以综合加速度（重复测量的平均值）作为自变量，在5年的时间里预测能力相当可观（相关性>0.30），并且也有迹象表明预测能力甚至更强，尽管样本量过小使得这些结果不可靠。同样，有迹象表明随着加速度值综合程度的提高，相关性更强。针对得出此类结果所需的方法以及事故致因行为随时间的稳定性对研究结果进行了讨论。
