Diverging trends in the incidence and mortality of stroke during the period 1986-2002: a study from the stroke register in Kaunas, Lithuania.

AIMS

The aim of the present study was to explore the longitudinal stroke trends in the middle-aged Lithuanian population.

METHODS

All stroke events in the studied population were ascertained and validated according to the standardized criteria outlined by the WHO MONICA Project. The study included all patients aged 25 to 64 years who experienced a stroke between 1986 and 2002.

RESULTS

A flat trend was observed in both the incidence and the attack rates of stroke among men during the 17-year study period, while among women, the incidence of stroke increased by 1.7%/year, and the attack rates by 2.3%/year. The 28-day case fatality and mortality rates of stroke decreased significantly in both sexes. The decline in case fatality explained 100% of the decline in mortality. Among the types of stroke, cerebral infarction contributed most to the decline in the mortality in men. In women, the mortality from cerebral infarction and intracerebral haemorrhage declined similarly to that from all types of strokes.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from our study indicating no positive changes in the incidence of stroke but instead an increase among middle-aged women in Kaunas are disturbing. These results suggest a need for the intensification of appropriate strategies for stroke prevention by the public health officials in Lithuania.