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爱沙尼亚切尔诺贝利清理工人的自杀风险仍在增加:一项更新的队列研究。

Suicide risk among Chernobyl cleanup workers in Estonia still increased: an updated cohort study.

作者信息

Rahu Kaja, Rahu Mati, Tekkel Mare, Bromet Evelyn

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.

出版信息

Ann Epidemiol. 2006 Dec;16(12):917-9. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2006.07.006. Epub 2006 Oct 5.

Abstract

PURPOSE

The aim of the study is to examine the mortality experience among Chernobyl cleanup workers.

METHODS

A cohort study of 4786 men from Estonia who participated in the Chernobyl cleanup from 1986 to 1991 and were traced until December 31, 2002. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and adjusted mortality rate ratio (RR) derived through Poisson regression analysis were calculated.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 550 deaths occurred, yielding an SMR of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.09). Increased risks were observed for suicide alone (SMR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67) and suicide combined with undetermined injury (SMR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.60). One leukemia death occurred, and no thyroid cancer deaths were found. Elevated mortality also was observed for brain cancer (SMR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.02-6.05). The adjusted RR for suicide remained stable over the time passed since return from the Chernobyl area, showing RRs of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.56-2.10) for 5 to 9 years and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.48-2.05) for 10 or more years compared with less than 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

During the 17 years after the accident, suicide risk in the cohort was greater than in the general male population. No elevated risk in overall mortality and radiation-related cancers was observed. The long-term nature of this elevated risk provides concrete evidence that psychological consequences represent the largest public health problem caused by the accident to date.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在调查切尔诺贝利清理工作人员的死亡情况。

方法

对4786名来自爱沙尼亚的男性进行队列研究,这些男性在1986年至1991年期间参与了切尔诺贝利清理工作,并被追踪至2002年12月31日。通过泊松回归分析计算标准化死亡率(SMR)和调整后的死亡率比值(RR)。

结果

在随访期间,共发生550例死亡,标准化死亡率为1.01(95%置信区间[CI],0.92 - 1.09)。仅自杀风险增加(标准化死亡率,1.32;95%置信区间,1.03 - 1.67),以及自杀合并不明损伤的风险增加(标准化死亡率,1.29;95%置信区间,1.03 - 1.60)。发生1例白血病死亡,未发现甲状腺癌死亡病例。脑癌死亡率也有所升高(标准化死亡率,2.78;95%置信区间,1.02 - 6.05)。自从切尔诺贝利地区返回后,自杀的调整后死亡率比值随时间保持稳定,与返回后不到5年相比,返回后5至9年的死亡率比值为1.09(95%置信区间,0.56 - 2.10),返回后10年或更长时间的死亡率比值为1.00(95%置信区间,0.48 - 2.05)。

结论

事故发生后的17年里,该队列中的自杀风险高于一般男性人群。未观察到总体死亡率和辐射相关癌症风险升高。这种风险升高的长期性质提供了具体证据,表明心理后果是迄今为止该事故造成的最大公共卫生问题。

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