Groff Loren S, Price Jana M
Safety Studies and Data Analysis Division, National Transportation Safety Board, Washington, DC 20594, USA.
Aviat Space Environ Med. 2006 Oct;77(10):1062-7.
Accidents in degraded visibility continue to account for a disproportionately large number of fatal crashes and fatalities in general aviation (GA). However, the relatively small percentage of these crashes annually suggests that even a small reduction in the number of crashes can result in a large reduction in associated fatalities.
This study identified risk factors associated with GA accidents that occur in degraded visibility.
Data collected during 72 National Transportation Safety Board investigations of GA accidents were compared with data collected from 135 control flights matched on weather conditions, location, time, and rules of flight. Study variables included pilot demographics, experience, testing and accident histories, and the purpose and length of flights. Initial comparisons were conducted using Chi-square analyses, followed by the development of a logistic regression model.
Univariate analyses identified significant differences in pilot age at accident, age at initial certification, certificate level, instrument rating, testing performance, and previous accident involvement. There were also significant differences between groups related to aircraft ownership, purpose of flight, and intended flight length. The logistic regression revealed significant increased risk for pilots initially certified after age 25 [odds ratio (OR) 4.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-10.81, without instrument ratings (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.8-12.8), with prior accidents/incidents (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.1-8.7), and for intended flights longer than 300 nmi (OR 4.6, 95% CI 1.6-13.8).
Certain risk factors (e.g., instrument rating) were consistent with previous research, while others (e.g., age at certification) raise questions for future research.
在低能见度情况下发生的事故在通用航空（GA）的致命坠机事故和死亡人数中所占比例仍然过高。然而，这些坠机事故每年所占比例相对较小，这表明即使坠机事故数量略有减少，也可能导致相关死亡人数大幅下降。
本研究确定了与低能见度情况下发生的通用航空事故相关的风险因素。
将美国国家运输安全委员会对72起通用航空事故调查期间收集的数据与从135次对照飞行中收集的数据进行比较，这些对照飞行在天气条件、地点、时间和飞行规则方面相匹配。研究变量包括飞行员的人口统计学特征、经验、测试和事故历史，以及飞行目的和飞行时长。最初的比较采用卡方分析，随后建立逻辑回归模型。
单因素分析发现，事故发生时的飞行员年龄、初始认证年龄、证书级别、仪表等级、测试表现和先前事故参与情况存在显著差异。在飞机所有权、飞行目的和预期飞行时长方面，各组之间也存在显著差异。逻辑回归显示，25岁以后初次获得认证的飞行员风险显著增加[优势比（OR）4.5，95%置信区间（CI）1.9 - 10.81]，没有仪表等级的飞行员（OR 4.8，95% CI 1.8 - 12.8），有先前事故/事件的飞行员（OR 3.1，95% CI 1.1 - 8.7），以及预期飞行超过300海里的飞行员（OR 4.6，95% CI 1.6 - 13.8）。
某些风险因素（如仪表等级）与先前的研究一致，而其他因素（如认证年龄）则为未来的研究提出了问题。
