Folding kinetics of a lattice protein via a forward flux sampling approach.

We implement a forward flux sampling approach [R. J. Allen et al., J. Chem. Phys. 124, 194111 (2006)] for calculating transition rate constants and for sampling paths of protein folding events. The algorithm generates trajectories for the transition between the unfolded and folded states as chains of partially connected paths, which can be used to obtain the transition-state ensemble and the properties that characterize these intermediates. We apply this approach to Monte Carlo simulations of a model lattice protein in open space and in confined spaces of varying dimensions. We study the effect of confinement on both protein thermodynamic stability and folding kinetics; the former by mapping free-energy landscapes and the latter by the determination of rate constants and mechanistic details of the folding pathway. Our results show that, for the range of temperatures where the native state is stable, confinement of a protein destabilizes the unfolded state by reducing its entropy, resulting in increased thermodynamic stability of the folded state. Relative to the folding in open space, we find that the kinetics can be accelerated at temperatures above the temperature at which the unconfined protein folds fastest and that the rate constant increases with the number of constrained dimensions. By examining the statistical properties of the transition-state ensemble, we detect signs of a classical nucleation folding mechanism for a core of native contacts formed at an early stage of the process. This nucleus acts as folding foci and is composed of those residues that have higher probability to form native contacts in the transition-state intermediates, which can vary depending on the confinement conditions of the system.