A multimedia environmental model of chemical distribution: fate, transport, and uncertainty analysis.

This paper presented a framework for analysis of chemical concentration in the environment and evaluation of variance propagation within the model. This framework was illustrated through a case study of selected organic compounds of benzo[alpha]pyrene (BAP) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) in the Great Lakes region. A multimedia environmental fate model was applied to perform stochastic simulations of chemical concentrations in various media. Both uncertainty in chemical properties and variability in hydrometeorological parameters were included in the Monte Carlo simulation, resulting in a distribution of concentrations in each medium. Parameters of compartmental dimensions, densities, emissions, and background concentrations were assumed to be constant in this study. The predicted concentrations in air, surface water and sediment were compared to reported data for validation purpose. Based on rank correlations, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the influence of individual input parameters on the output variance for concentration in each environmental medium and for the basin-wide total mass inventory. Results of model validation indicated that the model predictions were in reasonable agreement with spatial distribution patterns, among the five lake basins, of reported data in the literature. For the chemical and environmental parameters given in this study, parameters associated to air-ground partitioning (such as moisture in surface soil, vapor pressure, and deposition velocity) and chemical distribution in soil solid (such as organic carbon partition coefficient and organic carbon content in root-zone soil) were targeted to reduce the uncertainty in basin-wide mass inventory. This results of sensitivity analysis in this study also indicated that the model sensitivity to an input parameter might be affected by the magnitudes of input parameters defined by the parameter settings in the simulation scenario. Therefore, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for environmental fate models was suggested to be conducted after the model output was validated based on an appropriate input parameter settings.