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运用专家判断来理解基于森林露营的空间模式:风险价值应用

Using expert judgments to understand spatial patterns of forest-based camping: a values-at-risk application.

作者信息

Neupane Anish, Boxall Peter C, McFarlane Bonita L, Pelletier Rick T

机构信息

Department of Rural Economy, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2H1.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2007 Oct;85(2):471-82. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.10.011. Epub 2006 Dec 12.

Abstract

Fire management agencies in Canada are mandated with protecting multiple forest values from wildfire. Deciding where to reduce fire hazard and how to allocate resources and fire suppression efforts requires an understanding of the values-at-risk from wildfire. The protection of recreation infrastructure is often assumed to provide adequate protection of recreation values. We use an expert judgment approach to provide a spatial distribution of recreation values-at-risk in the forested eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain region of Alberta, Canada. Data were collected in 2004 from 11 land managers responsible for public lands management and wildfire prevention in the region. Expert assessments showed that recreation values were not confined to areas with publicly funded infrastructure. Exploratory spatial analysis of the ratings identified hotspots and cold spots of recreation activity. Maps resulting from these efforts will provide guidance to fire managers in the prioritization of fire management activities.

摘要

加拿大的火灾管理机构受命保护多种森林价值免受野火侵害。决定在何处降低火灾风险以及如何分配资源和灭火工作需要了解野火所危及的价值。人们通常认为对娱乐基础设施的保护能充分保障娱乐价值。我们采用专家判断法来提供加拿大艾伯塔省落基山脉地区东部森林地带娱乐价值受威胁的空间分布情况。2004年,我们从该地区负责公共土地管理和野火预防的11位土地管理者那里收集了数据。专家评估表明,娱乐价值并不局限于有公共资金支持的基础设施所在区域。对评级进行的探索性空间分析确定了娱乐活动的热点和冷点。这些工作所形成的地图将为火灾管理者确定火灾管理活动的优先级提供指导。

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