Gerstorf Denis, Smith Jacqui, Baltes Paul B
Department of Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.
Psychol Aging. 2006 Dec;21(4):645-63. doi: 10.1037/0882-7974.21.4.645.
Wholistic perspectives on differential change focus on multiple-indicator information at a person level. They supplement the modeling of average trajectories at a variable level. The authors extended cross-sectional work in the Berlin Aging Study (J. Smith & P. B. Baltes, 1997) to 6-year longitudinal cluster analyses (n = 132). At baseline, 3 subgroups were identified with distinct within-person psychological profiles across cognitive, personality, and social integration constructs. Over time, highly similar subgroup profiles were found, and about two thirds of the participants could be classified as remaining in the same subgroups. Baseline subgroups differed in level and slope of change and in 2 outcomes, well-being and mortality. Independent of subgroup membership, subgroup-to-subgroup change was associated with greater decline and predicted poststudy mortality. These findings demonstrate the usefulness of a wholistic approach for long-term prediction of outcomes and within-person systemic variability.
关于差异变化的整体观点关注个体层面的多指标信息。它们补充了变量层面平均轨迹的建模。作者将柏林衰老研究（J. 史密斯和P. B. 巴尔特斯，1997年）中的横断面研究扩展为6年纵向聚类分析（n = 132）。在基线时，识别出3个亚组，它们在认知、人格和社会融合结构方面具有不同的个体心理特征。随着时间的推移，发现了高度相似的亚组特征，约三分之二的参与者可被归类为仍处于同一亚组。基线亚组在变化水平和斜率以及幸福感和死亡率这两个结果方面存在差异。与亚组成员身份无关，亚组间的变化与更大程度的衰退相关，并预测了研究后的死亡率。这些发现证明了整体方法在长期结果预测和个体内部系统变异性方面的有用性。
