Risk factors for liver transplantation waiting list mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The gap between the demand for liver transplantation and organ donation rates has a major impact on waiting list mortality. Understanding the risk factors that predict liver transplant waiting list death may help optimize organ allocation policy and reduce waiting list deaths.

METHODS

We analyzed risk factors associated with waiting list mortality in the Liver Transplant Unit Victoria for the period 1988 through 2004.

RESULTS

The mean annual waiting list mortality for the period examined was 10.2% (10.6% for adult and 6.4% for pediatric patients). Factors associated with waiting list death included female sex, fulminant hepatic failure, primary non-function, blood group O, more urgent United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)-derived medical status, a Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score >or=11, a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >or=20, and a pediatric end-stage liver disease score >or=20. UNOS-derived medical status, CTP class, and MELD score were significant at the multivariate level.

CONCLUSIONS

Disease severity scores, such as MELD, predict the risk of liver transplantation waiting list mortality. Use of such scores in organ allocation in Australian liver transplant units may result in reduced waiting list mortality.