Schwalbe Craig S
Columbia University, School of Social Work, 1255 Amsterdam Ave., New York, NY 10027, USA.
Law Hum Behav. 2007 Oct;31(5):449-62. doi: 10.1007/s10979-006-9071-7. Epub 2007 Jan 9.
Risk assessment instruments are increasingly employed by juvenile justice settings to estimate the likelihood of recidivism among delinquent juveniles. In concert with their increased use, validation studies documenting their predictive validity have increased in number. The purpose of this study was to assess the average predictive validity of juvenile justice risk assessment instruments and to identify risk assessment characteristics that are associated with higher predictive validity. A search of the published and grey literature yielded 28 studies that estimated the predictive validity of 28 risk assessment instruments. Findings of the meta-analysis were consistent with effect sizes obtained in larger meta-analyses of criminal justice risk assessment instruments and showed that brief risk assessment instruments had smaller effect sizes than other types of instruments. However, this finding is tentative owing to limitations of the literature.
少年司法机构越来越多地使用风险评估工具来估计违法青少年再次犯罪的可能性。随着这些工具使用的增加，记录其预测效度的验证研究数量也有所增加。本研究的目的是评估少年司法风险评估工具的平均预测效度，并确定与较高预测效度相关的风险评估特征。对已发表文献和灰色文献的检索产生了28项研究，这些研究估计了28种风险评估工具的预测效度。荟萃分析的结果与在更大规模的刑事司法风险评估工具荟萃分析中获得的效应量一致，表明简短风险评估工具的效应量比其他类型的工具小。然而，由于文献的局限性，这一发现是初步的。
