Kingston Drew A, Yates Pamela M, Firestone Philip, Babchishin Kelly, Bradford John M
University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Sex Abuse. 2008 Dec;20(4):466-84. doi: 10.1177/1079063208325206. Epub 2008 Oct 7.
The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive accuracy of the Risk Matrix 2000 on an independent sample of 351 sexual offenders, followed in the community for an average duration of 11.4 years (range 0-20 years, SD = 4.4 years). For comparison purposes, this study also examines the predictive accuracy of two other risk assessment instruments, specifically modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). Results indicate that the Risk Matrix 2000 demonstrates convergent validity by correlating with the other risk assessment instruments. Moreover, the Risk Matrix 2000 is predictive of recidivism above chance levels, exhibiting medium to large effect sizes, although in general, the other two instruments, particularly the SORAG, are superior. Results also indicate differences in predictive validity when comparing 2-year, 5-year, and variable follow-up periods. Finally, a cumulative meta-analysis compares and integrates current findings with those obtained from the accumulation of previous studies, and new cumulative estimates are provided.
本研究的目的是检验风险矩阵2000对351名性犯罪者独立样本的预测准确性，这些性犯罪者在社区中接受随访的平均时长为11.4年（范围0至20年，标准差 = 4.4年）。为了进行比较，本研究还检验了其他两种风险评估工具的预测准确性，具体而言是静态-99和性犯罪者风险评估指南（SORAG）的修订版本。结果表明，风险矩阵2000通过与其他风险评估工具的相关性展现出收敛效度。此外，风险矩阵2000对再犯的预测高于随机水平，呈现出中等到较大的效应量，不过总体而言，其他两种工具，尤其是SORAG，表现更优。结果还表明，在比较2年、5年和可变随访期时，预测效度存在差异。最后，一项累积荟萃分析将当前研究结果与以往研究积累所得结果进行比较和整合，并提供了新的累积估计值。
