Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University.
Lucas County Juvenile Court.
Law Hum Behav. 2023 Apr;47(2):320-332. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000528.
This hypothetical vignette-based experiment was designed to better understand judges' and probation officers' interpretations and use of juvenile risk assessment tools in their decision-making around restrictive sanctions and confinement of youths on the basis of the youths' risk level and race.
We expected that estimates of the probability of juvenile recidivism would significantly mediate the relationship between a categorical risk descriptor and decisions regarding the ordering confinement of youths. We also hypothesized that youths' race would serve as a significant moderator in the model.
Judicial and probation staff (N = 309) read a two-part vignette about a youth who was arrested for the first time; in this vignette, race (Black, White) and risk level (low, moderate, high, very high) of the youth were varied. Participants were asked to estimate the likelihood that the youth would recidivate in the following year and their likelihood of ordering or recommending residential placement.
Although we found no simple, significant relationship between risk level and confinement decisions, judicial and probation staff estimated higher likelihoods of recidivism as risk-level categories increased and ordered out-of-home placements at increased rates as their estimations of the youth's likelihood of recidivation increased. The youth's race did not moderate the model.
The greater the probability of recidivism, the more likely each judge or probation officer was to order or recommend out-of-home placement. However, importantly, legal decisionmakers appeared to apply categorical risk assessment data to their confinement decisions using their own interpretations of risk category rather than being guided empirically on the basis of risk-level categories. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
本假设情景实验旨在更好地理解法官和缓刑官在根据青少年的风险水平和种族，对限制制裁和监禁青少年的决策中，对青少年风险评估工具的解释和使用。
我们预计，青少年累犯的概率估计将显著中介类别风险描述符与关于青少年禁闭命令的决策之间的关系。我们还假设，青少年的种族将在模型中充当重要的调节变量。
司法和缓刑工作人员（N=309）阅读了一个关于一个青少年因首次被捕的两部分情景描述；在这个情景中，青少年的种族（黑，白）和风险水平（低，中，高，非常高）是不同的。参与者被要求估计青少年在接下来的一年中再次犯罪的可能性，以及他们命令或推荐进行居住安置的可能性。
尽管我们没有发现风险水平与监禁决策之间存在简单、显著的关系，但司法和缓刑工作人员随着风险级别的增加，估计累犯的可能性更高，并随着他们对青少年累犯可能性的估计增加，以更高的比例命令进行非家庭安置。青少年的种族并没有调节模型。
累犯的可能性越大，每个法官或缓刑官越有可能命令或推荐非家庭安置。然而，重要的是，法律决策者似乎根据自己对风险类别的解释，而不是根据风险级别类别进行经验指导，将类别风险评估数据应用于他们的监禁决策。（PsycInfo 数据库记录（c）2023 APA，保留所有权利）。
