Didkowska Joanna, Wojciechowska Urszula, Zatoński Witold
Zakład Epidemiologii i Prewencji Nowotworów, Centrum Onkologii-Instytut im. Marii Skłodowskiej-Curie, Warszawa.
Ginekol Pol. 2006 Sep;77(9):660-6.
Cancer is one of the main causes of death among young and middle-aged females. In case of some cancer sites there is a possibility of undertaking an intervention, which would diminish the risk of death--to this group belongs first of all malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri. The date of beginning first cervix uteri cancer screening in Poland is approaching, therefore presenting epidemiological opening balance and possible scenarios of changes it worthwhile. This work uses data on morbidity and mortality due to malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri cancer in Polish population. Time trends analysis was based on so-called "breakpoint" (joinpoint analysis). Cervix uteri cancer mortality trend is characterized by two breakpoints (1971 and 1993). In the period of 1963-1970 there was an increase of mortality and then after the trend reversed: percentage decline was estimated at the level of 0.8% yearly in 1971-1992 and 2.4% yearly in 1993-2002. Hypothetical scenarios of changes in cervix uteri cancer mortality show, that lack of intervention will cause mortality among Polish females at the level recorded in Finland 25 years ago. Optimistic variant would allow on diminishing mortality in Poland down to the level observed currently in Finland, in around 30 years. Implementing preventive cervix uteri cancer screening is currently the most urgent challenge of public health. If the preventive screening program will still be in the phase of plans and projects, then in 30 years time Poland will be in the point which Finland reached in the end of 1970s, and our civilizing underdevelopment will reach half a century.
癌症是中青年女性主要死因之一。对于某些癌症部位，有可能采取干预措施以降低死亡风险，宫颈癌恶性肿瘤首先属于这一类。波兰首次进行子宫颈癌筛查的日期即将到来，因此呈现流行病学初始平衡以及可能的变化情景是很有价值的。这项工作使用了波兰人群中子宫颈癌恶性肿瘤的发病率和死亡率数据。时间趋势分析基于所谓的“断点”（连接点分析）。子宫颈癌死亡率趋势有两个断点（1971年和1993年）。在1963 - 1970年期间死亡率上升，之后趋势逆转：1971 - 1992年估计每年下降0.8%，1993 - 2002年每年下降2.4%。子宫颈癌死亡率变化的假设情景表明，缺乏干预将导致波兰女性的死亡率达到25年前芬兰的水平。乐观的情况是，在大约30年内，波兰的死亡率有望降至目前芬兰观察到的水平。实施预防性子宫颈癌筛查是当前公共卫生最紧迫的挑战。如果预防性筛查计划仍处于规划和项目阶段，那么30年后波兰将处于芬兰在20世纪70年代末达到的水平，而我们的文明落后将达到半个世纪。
