Hayat Matthew J, Howlader Nadia, Reichman Marsha E, Edwards Brenda K
Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, 6116 Executive Blvd., Suite 504, Bethesda, Maryland 20892-8315, USA.
Oncologist. 2007 Jan;12(1):20-37. doi: 10.1634/theoncologist.12-1-20.
An overview of cancer statistics and trends for selected cancers and all sites combined are given based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Median age at diagnosis for all sites combined shows a 2-year increase from 1974 through 1978 to 1999 through 2003. Changes in cancer incidence rates from 1975 through 2003 are summarized by annual percent change for time periods determined by joinpoint regression analysis. After initial stability (1975-1979), incidence rates in women for all cancer sites combined increased from 1979 through 2003, although the rate of increase has recently slowed. For men, initial increases in all cancer sites combined (1975-1992) are followed by decreasing incidence rates (1992-1995) and stable trends from 1995 through 2003. Female thyroid cancer shows continued increasing incidence rates from 1981 through 2003. Blacks have the highest incidence and mortality rates for men and women for all cancer sites combined. Based on 2001 through 2003 data, the likelihood of developing cancer during one's lifetime is approximately one in two for men and one in three for women. Five-year relative survival for all stages combined (1996-2002) ranges from 16% for lung to 100% for prostate cancer patients. Cancer survival varies by stage of disease and race, with lower survival in blacks compared with whites. The risk of developing subsequent multiple primary cancers varies from 1% for an initial liver primary diagnosis to 16% for initial bladder cancer primaries. The impact on the future U.S. cancer burden is estimated based on the growing and aging U.S. population. The number of new cancer patients is expected to more than double from 1.36 million in 2000 to almost 3.0 million in 2050.
基于监测、流行病学和最终结果计划的数据,给出了特定癌症以及所有部位癌症综合的癌症统计数据和趋势概述。所有部位癌症综合诊断的中位年龄显示,从1974年至1978年到1999年至2003年增加了2岁。1975年至2003年癌症发病率的变化通过连接点回归分析确定的时间段的年度百分比变化进行总结。在最初的稳定期(1975 - 1979年)之后,所有癌症部位综合的女性发病率从1979年至2003年有所上升,尽管近期上升速度有所放缓。对于男性,所有癌症部位综合的发病率最初上升(1975 - 1992年),随后下降(1992 - 1995年),并在1995年至2003年保持稳定趋势。女性甲状腺癌从1981年至2003年发病率持续上升。黑人在所有癌症部位综合的男性和女性中发病率和死亡率最高。基于2001年至2003年的数据,男性一生中患癌症的可能性约为二分之一,女性约为三分之一。所有阶段综合(1996 - 2002年)的五年相对生存率从肺癌的16%到前列腺癌患者的100%不等。癌症生存率因疾病阶段和种族而异,黑人的生存率低于白人。后续发生多种原发性癌症的风险从最初诊断为肝癌的1%到最初诊断为膀胱癌的16%不等。基于美国不断增长和老龄化的人口,估计了对未来美国癌症负担的影响。预计新癌症患者数量将从2000年的136万增加一倍多,到2050年接近300万。