加拿大甲型肝炎普遍接种评估的动态模型
A dynamic model for assessing universal Hepatitis A vaccination in Canada.
作者信息
Bauch C T, Rao Arni S R Srinivasa, Pham B Z, Krahn M, Gilca V, Duval B, Chen M H, Tricco A C
机构信息
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Canada.
出版信息
Vaccine. 2007 Feb 26;25(10):1719-26. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.11.020. Epub 2006 Nov 27.
Vaccination against Hepatitis A virus (HAV) in Canada is currently targeted toward high-risk groups. However, universal vaccination has been adopted in several other countries with a similar disease burden. Here we develop an age-structured compartmental model of HAV transmission and vaccination in Canada to assess potential universal vaccination strategies. The model predicts that universal vaccination at age 1 (respectively 4, 9, 15), with phasing out of targeted vaccination, would reduce reported incidence by 60% (respectively 52, 36, 31%) and mortality attributable to HAV by 56% (respectively 45, 26, 25%), relative to continued targeted vaccination, over 80 years.
加拿大目前针对甲型肝炎病毒（HAV）的疫苗接种目标是高危人群。然而，其他一些疾病负担相似的国家已采用普遍接种疫苗的方式。在此，我们建立了一个加拿大HAV传播和疫苗接种的年龄结构分区模型，以评估潜在的普遍接种疫苗策略。该模型预测，相对于持续的目标性疫苗接种，在80年的时间里，1岁（分别为4岁、9岁、15岁）时进行普遍接种疫苗，并逐步淘汰目标性疫苗接种，将使报告的发病率降低60%（分别为52%、36%、31%），并使HAV所致死亡率降低56%（分别为45%、26%、25%）。
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