Kwok Kin On, Leung Gabriel M, Lam Wai Yee, Riley Steven
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, 5/F 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Mar 7;274(1610):611-7. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2006.0026.
Two factors dominated the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) during the 2002-2003 global outbreak, namely super-spreading events (SSE) and hospital infections. Although both factors were important during the first and the largest hospital outbreak in Hong Kong, the relative importance of different routes of infection has not yet been quantified. We estimated the parameters of a novel mathematical model of hospital infection using SARS episode data. These estimates described levels of transmission between the index super-spreader, staff and patients, and were used to compare three plausible hypotheses. The broadest of the supported hypotheses ascribes the initial surge in cases to a single super-spreading individual and suggests that the per capita risk of infection to patients increased approximately one month after the start of the outbreak. Our estimate for the number of cases caused by the SSE is substantially lower than the previously reported values, which were mostly based on self-reported exposure information. This discrepancy suggests that the early identification of the index case as a super-spreader might have led to biased contact tracing, resulting in too few cases being attributed to staff-to-staff transmission. We propose that in future outbreaks of SARS or other directly transmissible respiratory pathogens, simple mathematical models could be used to validate preliminary conclusions concerning the relative importance of different routes of transmission with important implications for infection control.
在2002 - 2003年全球严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)疫情期间,有两个因素主导了其流行病学特征,即超级传播事件(SSE)和医院感染。尽管在香港首次也是规模最大的医院疫情中这两个因素都很重要,但不同感染途径的相对重要性尚未得到量化。我们利用SARS疫情数据估计了一种新型医院感染数学模型的参数。这些估计描述了首例超级传播者、医护人员和患者之间的传播水平,并用于比较三种合理的假设。得到支持的最宽泛假设将病例的最初激增归因于单个超级传播个体,并表明疫情开始约一个月后患者的人均感染风险增加。我们对超级传播事件导致的病例数估计远低于先前报告的值,先前的值大多基于自我报告的接触信息。这种差异表明,将首例病例早期认定为超级传播者可能导致接触者追踪存在偏差,致使归因于医护人员之间传播的病例过少。我们建议,在未来SARS或其他直接传播的呼吸道病原体疫情中,简单的数学模型可用于验证关于不同传播途径相对重要性的初步结论,这对感染控制具有重要意义。