Scheel Ida, Aldrin Magne, Frigessi Arnoldo, Jansen Peder A
Department of Mathematics and (sfi)2 - Statistics for Innovation, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
J R Soc Interface. 2007 Aug 22;4(15):699-706. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2007.0217.
Infectious salmon anemia (ISA) is one of the main infectious diseases in Atlantic salmon farming with major economical implications. Despite the strong regulatory interventions, the ISA epidemic is not under control, worldwide. We study the data covering salmon farming in Norway from 2002 to 2005 and propose a stochastic space-time model for the transmission of the virus. We model seaway transmission between farm sites, transmission through shared management and infrastructure, biomass effects and other potential pathways within the farming industry. We find that biomass has an effect on infectiousness, the local contact network and seaway distance of 5 km represent similar risks, but a large component of risk originates from other sources, among which are possibly infected salmon smolt and boat traffic.
传染性鲑鱼贫血症（ISA）是大西洋鲑鱼养殖中的主要传染病之一，具有重大经济影响。尽管有强有力的监管干预措施，但ISA疫情在全球范围内仍未得到控制。我们研究了2002年至2005年挪威鲑鱼养殖的数据，并提出了一个病毒传播的随机时空模型。我们对养殖场之间的海路传播、通过共享管理和基础设施的传播、生物量影响以及养殖行业内的其他潜在传播途径进行了建模。我们发现生物量对传染性有影响，5公里的本地接触网络和海路距离代表相似的风险，但很大一部分风险来自其他来源，其中可能包括受感染的鲑鱼苗和船只运输。
