Hunault Claudine C, te Velde Egbert R, Weima Sjerp M, Macklon Nicholas S, Eijkemans Marinus J C, Klinkert Ellen R, Habbema J Dik F
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University, Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Fertil Steril. 2007 Jun;87(6):1314-21. doi: 10.1016/j.fertnstert.2006.11.052. Epub 2007 Feb 20.
To evaluate the application in a different fertility clinic of a prediction model for selecting IVF patients for elective single embryo transfer.
Retrospective analysis of a large database obtained from a tertiary infertility center.
University medical center.
PATIENT(S): The model, derived at the "development center" was applied in 494 consecutive first IVF cycles carried out at the "application center."
INTERVENTION(S): After adjustment of embryo scoring system to be compatible with that used by the prediction model, it was applied to the development center data. A score chart for predicting the probability of singleton or twin pregnancy was constructed.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) was determined to measure the ability of the model to discriminate between ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy. Calibration plots were made to assess agreement between predicted and observed pregnancy rates (PR).
The areas under the ROC for predicting ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy were 0.63 and 0.66, respectively. Insertion of a correction factor equivalent to the difference in odds ratios for ongoing PR between the two centers was required to improve the calibration of the model.
CONCLUSION(S): After adaptation, the model performed well in the application center.
评估一种用于选择体外受精（IVF）患者进行选择性单胚胎移植的预测模型在不同生育诊所的应用情况。
对从一家三级不孕不育中心获取的大型数据库进行回顾性分析。
大学医学中心。
在“应用中心”进行的494个连续首次IVF周期中应用了在“开发中心”得出的模型。
将胚胎评分系统调整为与预测模型所使用的系统兼容后，应用于开发中心的数据。构建了一个预测单胎或双胎妊娠概率的评分图表。
通过确定受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下的面积来衡量模型区分持续妊娠和双胎妊娠的能力。绘制校准图以评估预测妊娠率（PR）与观察到的妊娠率之间的一致性。
预测持续妊娠和双胎妊娠的ROC下面积分别为0.63和0.66。需要插入一个相当于两个中心之间持续PR比值比差异的校正因子来改善模型的校准。
经过调整后，该模型在应用中心表现良好。
