Takeda Shumpei
Center for Public Health and Welfare, Wakabayashi-Ku, Sendai.
Nihon Koshu Eisei Zasshi. 2007 Jan;54(1):25-31.
To derive values for life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (number of years people are expected to live without certification as being in need of long-term care) for Japanese at 65 years of age across 47 Prefectures in Japan, based on both national death statistics and long-term care insurance data, and to analyze their relationships with the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for the elderly aged 65 years and more.
Life expectancy was calculated using Chiang's method and healthy life expectancy using Sullivan's method. The number of years of living with long-term care needed (duration of care need) was determined by subtracting the healthy life expectancy from life expectancy. The SMR was calculated in comparison with that for the nation set at 1. The relationships between the indices were analyzed based on the Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient.
(1) Among the 47 prefectures, healthy life expectancy at 65 years of age in 2004 for males was the longest in Nagano Prefecture (16.72 years) and the shortest in Aomori Prefecture (14.32 years). For females, it was the longest in Yamanashi Prefecture (19.18 years) and the shortest in Osaka Prefecture (16.47 years). (2) Healthy life expectancy for males and females positively correlated with life expectancy, and negatively correlated with the duration of care need and SMR. Life expectancy negatively correlated with SMR for males and females, and, for females, it positively correlated with the duration of care need as well.
(1) Among the 47 prefectures, healthy life expectancy at 65 years of age in 2004 was the longest in Nagano Prefecture and the shortest in Aomori Prefecture. For females, it was the longest in Yamanashi Prefecture and the shortest in Osaka Prefecture. (2) For males and females, lowering the mortality rate as well as the prevalence of ill health with long-term care need is important for extending healthy life expectancy. For females, long life expectancy is associated with a long duration of care needed.
基于日本全国死亡统计数据和长期护理保险数据，得出日本47个都道府县65岁人群的预期寿命和健康预期寿命（预计无需长期护理认证的存活年数），并分析它们与65岁及以上老年人标准化死亡率（SMR）之间的关系。
预期寿命采用蒋氏方法计算，健康预期寿命采用沙利文方法计算。通过从预期寿命中减去健康预期寿命来确定需要长期护理的存活年数（护理需求持续时间）。与设定为1的全国SMR相比计算出SMR。基于斯皮尔曼等级相关系数分析各指标之间的关系。
（1）在47个都道府县中，2004年65岁男性的健康预期寿命在长野县最长（16.72年），在青森县最短（14.32年）。女性方面，在山梨县最长（19.18年），在大阪府最短（16.47年）。（2）男性和女性的健康预期寿命与预期寿命呈正相关，与护理需求持续时间和SMR呈负相关。男性和女性的预期寿命与SMR呈负相关，而对于女性，预期寿命与护理需求持续时间也呈正相关。
（1）在47个都道府县中，2004年65岁人群的健康预期寿命在长野县最长，在青森县最短。女性方面，在山梨县最长，在大阪府最短。（2）对于男性和女性而言，降低死亡率以及有长期护理需求的健康不佳患病率对于延长健康预期寿命很重要。对于女性，长寿与较长的护理需求持续时间相关。
