Gardam Michael, Liang Dong, Moghadas Seyed M, Wu Jianhong, Zeng Qingling, Zhu Huaiping
Toronto General Hospital, Eaton South Wing, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2C4, Canada.
J R Soc Interface. 2007 Aug 22;4(15):727-34. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0204.
Several models have rationalized the use of antiviral drugs as an early control measure for delaying the progression and limiting the size of outbreaks during an influenza pandemic. However, the strategy for use of these drugs is still under debate. We evaluated the impact of prophylaxis of healthcare workers (HCWs) through a mathematical model that considers attack rates in a range of 25-35% in the general population and 25-50% among HCWs. Simulations and uncertainty analysis using the demographics of the province of Ontario, Canada show that increasing prophylaxis coverage of HCWs has little impact on reducing the reproduction number of disease transmission and may not prevent the occurrence of an outbreak if expected. However, it does enable a high level of treatment, which substantially reduces morbidity and mortality in the population as a whole. Therefore, prophylaxis of HCWs should be considered an important part of public health efforts for minimizing influenza pandemic burden and its socio-economic disruption.
已有多种模型论证了使用抗病毒药物作为早期控制措施,以延缓流感大流行期间疫情的发展并限制其规模。然而,这些药物的使用策略仍存在争议。我们通过一个数学模型评估了医护人员预防用药的影响,该模型考虑了普通人群中25%至35%以及医护人员中25%至50%的感染率。利用加拿大安大略省的人口统计数据进行的模拟和不确定性分析表明,提高医护人员的预防用药覆盖率对降低疾病传播的繁殖数影响不大,并且如果预期发生疫情,可能无法预防疫情的发生。然而,它确实能够实现高水平的治疗,从而大幅降低整个人口的发病率和死亡率。因此,医护人员的预防用药应被视为公共卫生努力的重要组成部分,以尽量减少流感大流行的负担及其社会经济破坏。