Ward Helen
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
Sex Transm Infect. 2007 Aug;83 Suppl 1:i43-49. doi: 10.1136/sti.2006.023598. Epub 2007 Mar 27.
This article explores the relationship between sexual network structure and epidemic phase in sexually transmitted disease epidemiology, and discusses how this may be used to inform prevention strategies at the population level. There are relatively few empirical studies of sexual networks, and even fewer that track the evolution of networks over time. Most studies focus on networks in the context of disease transmission and will miss the network structure in the wider population. Results from disease-related studies in the early epidemic phase show densely connected networks with multiple short loops. In later hyperendemic phases, networks appear more loosely connected with a dominance of long branching structures. The latter structure has also been described from non-diseased populations. These structures evolve over time, both of the epidemic curve and as a cohort ages and undergoes demographic change. Population strategies for prevention should vary depending on network structure and epidemic phase. In early and late epidemic phases, interventions focusing on high-risk populations--that is, dense areas of a sexual network--will have a large population effect. In contrast, for established endemic diseases a smaller change (of behaviour or interruption of transmission through screening) in a larger proportion of the population could have the largest population impact. Further empirical work on the way network structures relate to epidemic phase, and how this changes with age and social development will help to inform intervention strategies at the population level.
本文探讨了性传播疾病流行病学中性网络结构与流行阶段之间的关系,并讨论了如何利用这种关系为人群层面的预防策略提供信息。关于性网络的实证研究相对较少,跟踪网络随时间演变的研究更少。大多数研究聚焦于疾病传播背景下的网络,而会忽略更广泛人群中的网络结构。早期流行阶段与疾病相关研究的结果显示,网络连接紧密,存在多个短环。在后期的高度流行阶段,网络连接似乎更为松散,长分支结构占主导。非患病群体也呈现出后一种结构。这些结构会随着时间演变,既随流行曲线变化,也随着队列年龄增长和人口结构变化而变化。预防的人群策略应根据网络结构和流行阶段而有所不同。在流行早期和晚期,针对高危人群(即性网络中的密集区域)的干预措施将产生较大的人群效应。相比之下,对于已确立的地方病,在更大比例的人群中发生较小的行为改变(或通过筛查中断传播)可能会对人群产生最大影响。关于网络结构与流行阶段的关系以及这种关系如何随年龄和社会发展而变化的进一步实证研究,将有助于为人群层面的干预策略提供信息。