Hertog Sara
Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.
Sex Transm Dis. 2007 Oct;34(10):820-8. doi: 10.1097/OLQ.0b013e31805ba84c.
This study evaluates whether the influence of sexual mixing patterns on the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic curve is sensitive to the prevailing rates of sexual partner change in a population.
A biobehavioral macrosimulation model is employed to assess the interacting dynamics of the rates of sexual partner change and patterns of sexual mixing between population subgroups. HIV spread is simulated under 2 rates of partner change scenarios and under various degrees of assortativeness in sexual mixing patterns.
With high rates of partner change, disassortativeness in sexual mixing tends to increase the overall size of the HIV epidemic. However, when relatively low rates of partner change are simulated, disassortative mixing yields a smaller epidemic. This pattern is further influenced by the underlying sexual transmission probabilities of HIV.
Each of the various determinants of the sexual spread of HIV must not be considered in isolation. Instead, the interactive nature of those determinants should be accounted for in discussions of HIV epidemic dynamics.
本研究评估性混合模式对人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）流行曲线的影响是否对人群中当前的性伴侣更换率敏感。
采用生物行为宏观模拟模型来评估性伴侣更换率与人群亚组间性混合模式的相互作用动态。在两种性伴侣更换率情景以及性混合模式的不同程度的 assortativeness 下模拟HIV传播。
在性伴侣更换率较高时，性混合中的非 assortativeness 倾向于增加HIV流行的总体规模。然而，当模拟相对较低的性伴侣更换率时，非 assortative 混合导致的流行规模较小。这种模式还受到HIV潜在性传播概率的进一步影响。
HIV性传播的各种决定因素不能孤立地考虑。相反，在讨论HIV流行动态时应考虑这些决定因素的相互作用性质。
