Artificial intelligence approach with the use of artificial neural networks for the creation of a forecasting model of Plasmopara viticola infection.

Most of the forecasting models of Plasmopara viticola infections are based upon empiric correlations between meteorological/environmental data and pathogen outbreak. These models generally overestimate the risk of infections and induce to treat the vineyard even if it should be not necessary. In rare cases they underrate the risk of infection leaving the pathogen to breakout. Starting from these considerations we have decided to approach the problem from another point of view utilizing Artificial Intelligence techniques for data elaboration and analysis. Meanwhile the same data have been studied with a more classic approach with statistical tools to verify the impact of a large data collection on the standard data analysis methods. A network of RTUs (Remote Terminal Units) distributed all over the Italian national territory transmits 12 environmental parameters every 15 minutes via radio or via GPRS to a centralized Data Base. Other pedologic data is collected directly from the field and sent via Internet to the centralized data base utilizing Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) running a specific software. Data is stored after having been preprocessed, to guarantee the quality of the information. The subsequent analysis has been realized mostly with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Collecting and analizing data in this way will probably bring us to the possibility of preventing Plasmospara viticola infection starting from the environmental conditions in this very complex context. The aim of this work is to forecast the infection avoiding the ineffective use of the plant protection products in agriculture. Applying different analysis models we will try to find the best ANN capable of forecasting with an high level of affordability.