De Wolf Erick D, Isard Scott A
Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas 66506, USA.
Annu Rev Phytopathol. 2007;45:203-20. doi: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.44.070505.143329.
Plant disease cycles represent pathogen biology as a series of interconnected stages of development including dormancy, reproduction, dispersal, and pathogenesis. The progression through these stages is determined by a continuous sequence of interactions among host, pathogen, and environment. The stages of the disease cycle form the basis of many plant disease prediction models. The relationship of temperature and moisture to disease development and pathogen reproduction serve as the basis for most contemporary plant disease prediction systems. Pathogen dormancy and inoculum dispersal are considered less frequently. We found extensive research efforts evaluating the performance of prediction models as part of operation disease management systems. These efforts appear to be greater than just a few decades ago, and include novel applications of Bayesian decision theory. Advances in information technology have stimulated innovations in model application. This trend must accelerate to provide the disease management strategies needed to maintain global food supplies.
植物病害循环将病原体生物学表现为一系列相互关联的发育阶段，包括休眠、繁殖、传播和发病机制。这些阶段的进展由宿主、病原体和环境之间持续的相互作用序列决定。病害循环的阶段构成了许多植物病害预测模型的基础。温度和湿度与病害发展及病原体繁殖的关系是大多数当代植物病害预测系统的基础。病原体休眠和接种体传播较少被考虑。我们发现，作为病害运营管理系统的一部分，有大量研究致力于评估预测模型的性能。这些努力似乎比几十年前更多，并且包括贝叶斯决策理论的新应用。信息技术的进步推动了模型应用的创新。这一趋势必须加速，以提供维持全球粮食供应所需的病害管理策略。
