Cox Jonathan, Abeku Tarekegn A
Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
Trends Parasitol. 2007 Jun;23(6):243-6. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2007.03.008. Epub 2007 Apr 6.
Although the development of early warning systems for malaria has been advocated by international agencies and academic researchers for many years, practical progress in this area has been relatively modest. In two recent articles, Thomson et al. provide new evidence that models of malaria incidence that incorporate monitored or predicted climate can provide early warnings of epidemics one to five months in advance in semi-arid areas. Although the potential benefits of these models in terms of improved management of epidemics are clear, several technical and practical hurdles still need to be overcome before the models can be widely integrated into routine malaria-control strategies.
尽管国际机构和学术研究人员多年来一直倡导开发疟疾预警系统，但该领域的实际进展相对有限。在最近的两篇文章中，汤姆森等人提供了新的证据，表明纳入监测或预测气候的疟疾发病率模型可以在半干旱地区提前一到五个月对疫情发出预警。尽管这些模型在改善疫情管理方面的潜在益处显而易见，但在这些模型能够广泛纳入常规疟疾控制策略之前，仍有几个技术和实际障碍需要克服。
