Seager Richard, Ting Mingfang, Held Isaac, Kushnir Yochanan, Lu Jian, Vecchi Gabriel, Huang Huei-Ping, Harnik Nili, Leetmaa Ants, Lau Ngar-Cheung, Li Cuihua, Velez Jennifer, Naik Naomi
Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Science. 2007 May 25;316(5828):1181-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1139601. Epub 2007 Apr 5.
How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
人为气候变化将如何影响北美西南部干旱地区的水文气候，这对水资源分配和区域发展进程具有重要意义。我们在此表明，气候模型之间存在广泛共识，即该地区在21世纪将会变干，而且向更干旱气候的转变应该已经在发生。如果这些模型是正确的，那么近年来多年干旱、尘暴区时期的干旱以及20世纪50年代干旱的干旱程度，将在数年至数十年的时间内成为美国西南部新的气候常态。
