Cartron Jean-Luc E, Triepke F Jack, Stahlecker Dale W, Arsenault David P, Ganey Joseph L, Hathcock Charles D, Thompson Hunter K, Cartron Matthieu C, Calhoun Kenneth C
Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Albuquerque, NM 87102, USA.
Animals (Basel). 2023 Dec 6;13(24):3770. doi: 10.3390/ani13243770.
The high-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential in anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in the foothills and mountains of the Southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) A1B moderate-emission scenario for the future climate. For five of the eight owl species, the regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (), and northern pygmy-owl (), were projected to experience the steepest habitat loss rates of 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed the complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while, for the whiskered screech-owl (), the contraction of the current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for the upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid Southwestern North America. Long-distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations in adapting to the regional loss of habitat.
植被类型变化的高分辨率预测对于预测和减轻未来气候变化对鸟类种群的影响可能至关重要。在此，我们使用美国林业局生态响应单元（ERU）分类法，为美国西南部山麓和山区出现的八种猫头鹰物种，开发并评估基于植被的繁殖栖息地概况。利用基于ERU 1990年前气候包络线和政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）A1B中等排放情景的生态系统脆弱性模型，预测了栖息地地图的变化。对于八种猫头鹰中的五种，预计到2090年，区域繁殖栖息地范围将至少减少60%。三种猫头鹰，即北方鹰鸮（分布在其分布的后缘）、斑腹矶鸮和北美姬鸮，预计栖息地丧失率最高，分别为85%、85%和76%。将预测的植被变化与记录详实的斑腹矶鸮繁殖种群叠加显示，到2090年，目前支持猫头鹰领地密集聚集的山地森林地区的栖息地将完全或几乎完全丧失。预计泛化种或低海拔猫头鹰物种受到的影响较小，而对于须角鸮来说，当前栖息地的收缩几乎被预计的向北扩张所抵消。总体而言，本研究结果表明，北美西南部半干旱地区高海拔森林猫头鹰极易受到气候变化的影响。长距离迁徙和低出生地留居性可能对一些山地猫头鹰种群适应区域栖息地丧失具有重要意义。
