Joksch H C
Mid-America Research Institute, West Hartford, CT 06107.
Accid Anal Prev. 1991 Oct;23(5):437-42. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(91)90063-b.
The traffic death rate and per capita alcohol consumption in Ireland were found by Walsh to be correlated. However, a more detailed analysis shows that changes in traffic deaths precede changes in alcohol consumption. Therefore, the correlation can not reflect a causal relation. When a speculative variable is included, the relation becomes concurrent. The overall conclusion is that there is no credible evidence for a relation between per capita alcohol consumption and traffic deaths.
沃尔什发现，爱尔兰的交通死亡率与人均酒精消费量之间存在关联。然而，更详细的分析表明，交通死亡人数的变化先于酒精消费量的变化。因此，这种关联不能反映因果关系。当纳入一个推测性变量时，两者的关系变为同步。总体结论是，没有可靠证据表明人均酒精消费量与交通死亡之间存在关联。
