Anti-myelin antibodies predict the clinical outcome after a first episode suggestive of MS.

The aim of this study was to test the contribution of anti-myelin antibodies in predicting conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to multiple sclerosis (MS) when considering either Poser's or McDonald's diagnostic criteria. Fifty-one patients with CIS and abnormal brain MRI were imaged monthly for six months and then at 12, 18, 24, 36 months. At baseline serum samples testing antibodies against myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (anti-MOG) and myelin basic protein (anti-MBP) were collected. During the 36-month follow-up, 26 (51%) patients developed a relapse thus becoming clinically definite MS (CDMS) according to Poser's criteria; 46 (90.2%) patients converted to MS according to McDonald's criteria. Out of 51 patients, 28 (54.9%) had either double or single positivity for anti-myelin antibodies. Antibody status significantly predicted MS according to Poser's criteria (P=0.004), but did not according to the McDonald's criteria. When compared to antibody negative patients, the risk of developing a relapse was 8.9 (95% CI: 2.7-29.8; P<0.001) for anti-MBP positive (anti-MBP+) patients and 1.5 (95% CI: 0.4-5.4; P=0.564) for those anti-MOG positive (anti-MOG+); double positive patients (ie, anti-MBP+/anti-MOG+) had a risk of relapse's occurrence equal to 3.4 (95% CI: 1.1-10.2; P=0.031). Also, the antibody status predicted the median time span from CIS to CDMS, that was of 36 months in the anti-MOG-/anti-MBP- group, 33 months in the anti-MOG+/anti-MBP- group, 24 months in the anti-MOG+/anti-MBP+ group and 12 months in the anti-MOG-/anti-MBP+ patients (P=0.003 by ANOVA). Our data support the prognostic value of anti-myelin antibodies in CIS patients at risk of CDMS, with positive patients showing shorter time interval to relapse occurrence than negative patients.