Winter David G
Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1043, USA.
J Pers Soc Psychol. 2007 May;92(5):920-37. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.92.5.920.
Drawing on D. G. Winter's (1993) comparison of 1914 and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the author identified 8 paired crises (1 escalating to war, 1 peacefully resolved). Documents (diplomatic messages, speeches, official media commentary) from each crisis were scored for power, affiliation, and achievement motivation; text measures of responsibility and activity inhibition; and integrative complexity. Aggregated effect-size results show that war crises had significantly higher levels of power motivation and responsibility, whereas peace crises showed trends toward higher integrative complexity and achievement motivation. Follow-up analyses suggested that these results are robust with respect to both sides in a crisis, type of material scored, and historical time. The power motive results extend previous findings, but the responsibility results suggest that responsibility plays a paradoxical role in war. Future research directions are sketched, and the role of psychological content analysis in monitoring the danger of war is discussed.
借鉴D.G.温特（1993年）对1914年事件和古巴导弹危机的比较，作者确定了8对危机事件（其中1对升级为战争，1对和平解决）。对每起危机事件的文件（外交信函、演讲、官方媒体评论）进行了权力、亲和性和成就动机评分；对责任和活动抑制进行了文本测度；并进行了综合复杂性分析。汇总的效应量结果表明，战争危机中的权力动机和责任感水平显著更高，而和平危机则呈现出综合复杂性和成就动机更高的趋势。后续分析表明，这些结果在危机双方、所评分材料的类型以及历史时期方面都具有稳健性。权力动机结果扩展了先前的研究发现，但责任感结果表明，责任感在战争中扮演着自相矛盾的角色。勾勒了未来的研究方向，并讨论了心理内容分析在监测战争危险方面的作用。
