Panagiotakos Demosthenes B, Fitzgerald Anthony P, Pitsavos Christos, Pipilis Athanasios, Graham Ian, Stefanadis Christodoulos
Unit of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, First Cardiology Clinic, School of Medicine, University of Athens, Greece.
Hellenic J Cardiol. 2007 Mar-Apr;48(2):55-63.
Interest in the development of functions that estimate the likelihood of an individual suffering a future cardiovascular disease (CVD) event has increased in recent times (e.g. Framingham sheets, SCORE-Systematic COronary Risk Estimation, PROCAM, etc.). However, the estimates of absolute risk may show substantial variations between different populations, because of geographical, cultural, social, behavioural and genetic differences, as well as various methodological issues related to the predictive models employed. We sought to calibrate the SCORE equations to the Greek population.
We used the SCORE system that offers an estimation of total fatal CVD risk in "high" and "low" CVD risk European countries. The project pulls together a pool of datasets from 12 European countries and 2.7 million person-years of observation. A mathematical procedure to adjust the risk estimates for individual countries was applied, based on local mortality and risk factor prevalence data from the ATTICA epidemiological study, which enrolled 3042 men and women (18+ years old), from the Attica region of Greece.
We present the calibration of the HellenicSCORE (equations, charts) by age group and sex, based on mortality data, as reported by the National Statistical Services, and prevalence data regarding smoking, total cholesterol and blood pressure levels, as reported by the ATTICA study.
The proposed HellenicSCORE will hopefully result in better estimation of the risk of CVD death in Greece and enhance handling of CVD risk factors in the referent population.
近年来，人们对开发能够估计个体未来发生心血管疾病（CVD）事件可能性的功能的兴趣有所增加（例如弗雷明汉表格、SCORE-系统性冠状动脉风险评估、PROCAM等）。然而，由于地理、文化、社会、行为和基因差异，以及与所采用的预测模型相关的各种方法学问题，绝对风险的估计在不同人群之间可能会有很大差异。我们试图将SCORE方程校准至希腊人群。
我们使用了SCORE系统，该系统可对欧洲“高”和“低”CVD风险国家的总致命CVD风险进行估计。该项目汇集了来自12个欧洲国家的一组数据集以及270万人年的观察数据。基于来自希腊阿提卡地区的阿提卡流行病学研究的当地死亡率和风险因素患病率数据，应用了一种针对各个国家调整风险估计值的数学程序。该研究纳入了希腊阿提卡地区3042名年龄在18岁及以上的男性和女性。
我们根据国家统计局报告的死亡率数据以及阿提卡研究报告的关于吸烟、总胆固醇和血压水平的患病率数据，按年龄组和性别展示了希腊SCORE（方程、图表）的校准情况。
提议的希腊SCORE有望更好地估计希腊CVD死亡风险，并加强对目标人群中CVD风险因素的管控。
