Loboda Tatiana V, Csiszar Ivan A
Geography Department, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA.
Ecol Appl. 2007 Apr;17(3):791-805. doi: 10.1890/05-1476.
The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.
俄罗斯远东地区具有高度生物重要性的森林，在苏联解体后的俄罗斯经济变革背景下，因对自然资源需求的不断增长而承受着越来越大的压力。大规模灾难性火灾发生的威胁不断增加，进一步加剧了这种压力，这对该地区的资源和经济潜力都构成了威胁。在本文中，我们引入了一个概念性的火灾威胁模型（FTM），并用它对俄罗斯远东地区的着火风险进行定量评估。由遥感数据驱动的FTM旨在评估潜在的野火发生情况及其对给定资源的影响和恢复潜力。该模型供资源管理者使用，以协助评估对给定资源当前的火灾威胁水平，预测气候变化和土地利用变化下火灾威胁的变化，并评估旨在将火灾影响降至最低的各种管理方法的效率。使用中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）的活跃火灾产品分析了着火风险（火灾威胁建模中的主要不确定性之一）。俄罗斯远东地区的着火风险在空间和时间域上显示出高度变化。然而，着火点的数量与该地区火灾发生的数量并非直接成正比。俄罗斯远东地区的火灾点火与人为活动（交通路线、定居点和土地利用）密切相关。夏季火灾点火次数的增加可能归因于：（1）夏季季风的中断以及随后火灾天气的变化；（2）自然火源点火的增加。
