University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Department of Human Sciences, Social and Health, Campus Folcara, Via S. Angelo - Località Folcara, 03043 Cassino, FR, Italy; University of Leicester, Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, Department of Geography, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK.
University of Leicester, Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, Department of Geography, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK; National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK.
J Environ Manage. 2016 May 1;172:112-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.02.013. Epub 2016 Feb 27.
Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires.
近几十年来，欧洲许多地区的土地利用和覆盖变化 (LUCC) 趋势已经重新配置了许多城市周边的景观结构。在这些地区，与高森林燃料景观元素的接近增加了人员和财产的火灾风险。这些“城市与自然景观交界区”（WUI）可以被定义为人类城市土地利用和森林燃料质量接触的景观。绘制它们的范围对于优先控制火灾风险和为当地森林火灾风险管理策略提供信息是必要的。本研究提出了一种在大陆尺度上绘制欧洲 WUI 区域范围和空间格局的方法。使用欧洲 WUI 区域地图，测试了最近 WUI 区域的距离与森林火灾概率相关的假设。随后通过逻辑回归分析对最近 WUI 区域的距离与卫星遥感的大森林火灾事件之间的统计关系进行建模。提出了第一张欧洲 WUI 范围和位置的大陆尺度地图。发现了大火灾与最近 WUI 区域的接近程度的国家特定正相关和负相关关系。区域尺度分析表明，在部分地中海地区，WUI 区对大火灾有很强的影响。结果表明，在旅游区如撒丁岛、普罗旺斯-阿尔卑斯-蓝色海岸或具有强大城市周边成分的地区如加泰罗尼亚、马德里社区、巴伦西亚社区，随着 WUI 距离的缩小，大燃烧表面的概率增加。对于上述地区，大燃烧表面的概率曲线在最近 WUI 的 5000 m 缓冲区内部显示出统计关系（ROC 值> 0.5）。明智的土地管理可以提供有价值的减少火灾风险的生态系统服务，而目前这在生态系统服务评估中并未明确包含。结果再次强调了在景观评估中纳入这一生态系统服务的重要性，以考虑减少灾难性大火风险的重要景观功能。
