Choudhuri Arnab Rai, Chatterjee Piyali, Jiang Jie
Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore-560012, India.
Phys Rev Lett. 2007 Mar 30;98(13):131103. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.131103. Epub 2007 Mar 29.
Whether or not the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by "feeding" observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 reasonably well and predict that cycle 24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle 23.
即将到来的第24个太阳活动周期是否会很强劲，目前正引发激烈争论。太阳周期是由一种复杂的发电机机制产生的。我们通过将太阳极区磁场的观测数据“输入”到我们的太阳发电机模型中，来模拟过去的几个太阳周期。我们的结果与第21 - 23个周期观测到的太阳黑子数拟合得相当好，并预测第24个周期将比第23个周期弱约35%。
