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基于主成分分析的太阳心跳与千年时间尺度上的太阳活动预测

Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

作者信息

Zharkova V V, Shepherd S J, Popova E, Zharkov S I

机构信息

Northumbria University, Department of Mathematics &Information Sciences, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 1XE, UK.

Institution of Space Science Research, Space Physics Department, Kiev, 03022, Ukraine.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2015 Oct 29;5:15689. doi: 10.1038/srep15689.

DOI:10.1038/srep15689
PMID:26511513
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4625153/
Abstract

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21-24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26-27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α - Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350-400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.

摘要

我们从覆盖约39%数据方差(σ = 0.67)的全日面磁图中,推导出太阳活动周期21 - 24期间时间磁场变化的两个主成分(PCs)。这些主成分归因于从相反半球传播的两个主要磁波,它们频率相近且相位偏移不断增加。利用符号回归分析,我们还推导出了这些波的数学公式,并计算了它们的汇总曲线,结果表明该曲线与太阳活动指数相关。将主成分向后外推800年,揭示出两个350年的大周期叠加在22年周期之上,其特征与过去报道的太阳黑子活动显著相似,包括蒙德极小期和道尔顿极小期。为下一个千年计算的汇总曲线预测,未来还会有三个大周期,其中最接近的大极小期将出现在即将到来的第26 - 27个周期,两个磁场波分离到相反半球,导致太阳活动大幅减弱。通过具有子午环流的α - Ω发电机模型对这些大周期变化进行了探究。发现发电机波以相近频率产生,它们的相互作用导致拍频效应,从而产生叠加在标准22年周期上的大周期(350 - 400年)。这种方法开启了在千年时间尺度上研究和可靠预测太阳活动的新纪元。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/904871d9fe9b/srep15689-f6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/13b14a185fbf/srep15689-f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/af5d699b109d/srep15689-f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/2761cb3fd33b/srep15689-f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/fb9db0c30418/srep15689-f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/7f89490c794c/srep15689-f5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/904871d9fe9b/srep15689-f6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/13b14a185fbf/srep15689-f1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/af5d699b109d/srep15689-f2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/2761cb3fd33b/srep15689-f3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/fb9db0c30418/srep15689-f4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/7f89490c794c/srep15689-f5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5fde/4625153/904871d9fe9b/srep15689-f6.jpg

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