Hansson Sture, Hjerne Olle, Harvey Chris, Kitchell James F, Cox Sean P, Essington Timothy E
Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden.
Ambio. 2007 Apr;36(2-3):265-71. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[265:mbsfuc]2.0.co;2.
Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.
基于一个早期发表的生态系统模型，我们探讨了波罗的海不同管理情景可能产生的影响。这些情景包括系统的贫营养化、海豹数量的急剧增加以及渔业管理的变化。从这些模拟中我们得出结论，渔业、海豹和富营养化对生态系统都有强烈且相互作用的影响。这些相互作用需要综合管理。该模型突出了渔业繁荣、海豹种群恢复和富营养化大幅减少等管理任务之间潜在的冲突。结果还表明，渔业管理参考点必须根据自然捕食者的存在或生态系统生产力的变化进行调整。
