Tanaka Hideo, Oshima Akira
Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases.
Nihon Koshu Eisei Zasshi. 2007 Apr;54(4):236-45.
A prospective cohort study was conducted to assess the excess mortality among victims of arsenic poisoning who had ingested "Morinaga dry-milk" that was contaminated with arsenic compounds in 1955.
We identified and enrolled 5,064 individuals who had ingested contaminated Morinaga dry-milk when they were aged two years or younger, in 1982 (mean age: 27.4 years) and they were followed until 2004 (mean length of follow-up: 22.3 years). The death certificates of subjects who died between 1982 and 2004 were examined. The risk of death was assessed by the ratio of the observed number (O) to the expected number of deaths (E), calculated from the mortality rate among Osaka residents.
The O/E ratio for all causes of death was 1.3 (O = 211, P < 0.01). Significant excess mortality was observed for diseases of the central nervous system (O/E = 5.4) or circulatory system (O/E = 1.4), external causes (O/E = 1.4) and traffic accidents (O/E = 2.0). Excess mortality from all causes appeared 0 to 4 years after study enrollment (O/E = 2.1, P < 0.01), and then the O/E ratio decreased to unity (O/E = 1.2) beyond 10 years after study enrollment. The 352 males who were unemployed at the time of enrollment in the study showed significantly elevated risk of death from all causes (O/E = 3.3), death from disease of the central nervous system (O/E = 36.7), circulatory system (O/E = 3.7) or respiratory system (O/E = 5.7), and death from external causes (O/E = 3.4).
This prospective cohort study showed that excess mortality from all causes among the victims of arsenic poisoning from ingestion of arsenic-contaminated "Morinaga dry-milk" in 1955 decreased to unity when they reached middle age.
开展一项前瞻性队列研究，以评估1955年摄入受砷化合物污染的“森永奶粉”的砷中毒受害者的超额死亡率。
我们确定并纳入了5064名在1982年（平均年龄：27.4岁）两岁及以下时摄入受污染森永奶粉的个体，并对他们进行随访直至2004年（平均随访时长：22.3年）。对1982年至2004年间死亡的研究对象的死亡证明进行了检查。通过观察到的死亡人数（O）与预期死亡人数（E）的比值来评估死亡风险，预期死亡人数根据大阪居民的死亡率计算得出。
所有死因的O/E比值为1.3（O = 211，P < 0.01）。中枢神经系统疾病（O/E = 5.4）、循环系统疾病（O/E = 1.4）、外部原因（O/E = 1.4）和交通事故（O/E = 2.0）的超额死亡率显著。所有原因导致的超额死亡率在研究入组后0至4年出现（O/E = 2.1，P < 0.01），然后在研究入组10年后O/E比值降至1（O/E = 1.2）。研究入组时失业的352名男性所有原因导致的死亡风险显著升高（O/E = 3.3），中枢神经系统疾病导致的死亡风险（O/E = 36.7）、循环系统疾病（O/E = 3.7）、呼吸系统疾病（O/E = 5.7）以及外部原因导致的死亡风险（O/E = 3.4）。
这项前瞻性队列研究表明，1955年因摄入受砷污染的“森永奶粉”而砷中毒的受害者，所有原因导致的超额死亡率在步入中年时降至1。
