Allen Andrew P, Savage Van M
National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2007 Jul;10(7):637-46. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01057.x.
Neutral biodiversity theory has the potential to contribute to our understanding of how macroevolutionary dynamics influence contemporary biodiversity, but there are issues regarding its dynamical predictions that must first be resolved. Here we address these issues by extending the theory in two ways using a novel analytical approach: (1) we set the absolute tempo of biodiversity dynamics by explicitly incorporating population-level stochasticity in abundance; (2) we allow new species to arise with more than one individual. Setting the absolute tempo yields quantitative predictions on biodiversity dynamics that can be tested using contemporary and fossil data. Allowing incipient-species abundances greater than one individual yields predictions on how these dynamics, and the form of the species-abundance distribution, are affected by multiple speciation modes. We apply this new model to contemporary and fossil data that encompass 30 Myr of macroevolution for planktonic foraminifera. By synthesizing the model with these empirical data, we present evidence that dynamical issues with neutral biodiversity theory may be resolved by incorporating the effects of environmental stochasticity and incipient-species abundance on biodiversity dynamics.
中性生物多样性理论有潜力帮助我们理解宏观进化动态如何影响当代生物多样性,但它的动力学预测存在一些问题,必须首先加以解决。在此,我们通过一种新颖的分析方法以两种方式扩展该理论来解决这些问题:(1)我们通过明确纳入丰度的种群水平随机性来设定生物多样性动态的绝对节奏;(2)我们允许新物种以多于一个个体的形式出现。设定绝对节奏可得出关于生物多样性动态的定量预测,这些预测可通过当代和化石数据进行检验。允许初始物种丰度大于一个个体可得出关于这些动态以及物种丰度分布形式如何受到多种物种形成模式影响的预测。我们将这个新模型应用于涵盖浮游有孔虫3000万年宏观进化的当代和化石数据。通过将模型与这些实证数据相结合,我们提供证据表明,通过纳入环境随机性和初始物种丰度对生物多样性动态的影响,中性生物多样性理论的动力学问题或许可以得到解决。