Litman Heather J, McKinlay John B
New England Research Institutes, Watertown, MA, USA.
BJU Int. 2007 Oct;100(4):820-5. doi: 10.1111/j.1464-410X.2007.07018.x. Epub 2007 Jun 5.
To use the population-based data from the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey to estimate the likely magnitude (prevalence) of urological symptoms in the USA population in 2025, as health-services researchers use projections of the likely magnitude of disease to inform decisions on the future allocation of health resources.
Age and gender-specific prevalence rates from BACH were combined with USA population projections to estimate the likely magnitude of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and symptoms suggestive of urine leakage, painful bladder syndrome (PBlS) and prostatitis (men only).
In total and accounting for overlapping symptoms, 52 million adults in the USA will have symptoms of LUTS, urine leakage, PBlS or prostatitis in 2025. These urological symptoms have a large impact on physical and mental aspects of quality of life, that is comparable to other chronic conditions.
The future magnitude of symptoms indicative of these four urological conditions might reach the current level of cardiovascular disease in the USA, which is considered 'a modern epidemic.' Our projections have important implications for medical education, training of healthcare providers, health-services research, and policy and patient education.
利用波士顿地区社区健康（BACH）调查中的基于人群的数据，估计2025年美国人群中泌尿系统症状的可能严重程度（患病率），因为卫生服务研究人员利用疾病可能严重程度的预测来为未来卫生资源分配决策提供信息。
将BACH中按年龄和性别划分的患病率与美国人口预测相结合，以估计下尿路症状（LUTS）以及提示尿失禁、膀胱疼痛综合征（PBlS）和前列腺炎（仅男性）症状的可能严重程度。
总体而言，考虑到症状重叠，2025年美国将有5200万成年人出现LUTS、尿失禁、PBlS或前列腺炎症状。这些泌尿系统症状对生活质量的身体和心理方面有很大影响，与其他慢性疾病相当。
这四种泌尿系统疾病症状的未来严重程度可能达到美国目前心血管疾病的水平，而心血管疾病被视为“现代流行病”。我们的预测对医学教育、医疗服务提供者培训、卫生服务研究以及政策和患者教育具有重要意义。
