Witteman Cilia L M, Renooij Silja, Koele Pieter
Diagnostic Decision Making, Behavioural Science Institute, Faculty of Social Sciences, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2007 Jun 11;7:13. doi: 10.1186/1472-6947-7-13.
In the complex domain of medical decision making, reasoning under uncertainty can benefit from supporting tools. Automated decision support tools often build upon mathematical models, such as Bayesian networks. These networks require probabilities which often have to be assessed by experts in the domain of application. Probability response scales can be used to support the assessment process. We compare assessments obtained with different types of response scale.
General practitioners (GPs) gave assessments on and preferences for three different probability response scales: a numerical scale, a scale with only verbal labels, and a combined verbal-numerical scale we had designed ourselves. Standard analyses of variance were performed.
No differences in assessments over the three response scales were found. Preferences for type of scale differed: the less experienced GPs preferred the verbal scale, the most experienced preferred the numerical scale, with the groups in between having a preference for the combined verbal-numerical scale.
We conclude that all three response scales are equally suitable for supporting probability assessment. The combined verbal-numerical scale is a good choice for aiding the process, since it offers numerical labels to those who prefer numbers and verbal labels to those who prefer words, and accommodates both more and less experienced professionals.
在医疗决策的复杂领域中，不确定性推理可借助支持工具。自动化决策支持工具通常基于数学模型构建，如贝叶斯网络。这些网络需要概率，而概率往往必须由应用领域的专家进行评估。概率反应量表可用于支持评估过程。我们比较了使用不同类型反应量表获得的评估结果。
全科医生（GPs）对三种不同的概率反应量表进行评估并表达偏好：数字量表、仅带有文字标签的量表以及我们自行设计的文字 - 数字组合量表。进行了标准方差分析。
在三种反应量表上的评估未发现差异。对量表类型的偏好有所不同：经验较少的全科医生更喜欢文字量表，经验最丰富的则更喜欢数字量表，中间群体则偏好文字 - 数字组合量表。
我们得出结论，所有三种反应量表同样适用于支持概率评估。文字 - 数字组合量表是辅助该过程的一个不错选择，因为它为喜欢数字的人提供数字标签，为喜欢文字的人提供文字标签，并且适合经验或多或少的专业人员。
