Timmermans D
Medical Decision Making Unit, University of Leiden, The Netherlands.
Med Decis Making. 1994 Apr-Jun;14(2):146-56. doi: 10.1177/0272989X9401400207.
Verbal probability terms are frequently used in medical practice. In the present experiment the use of verbal and numerical probability terms in medical decisions was investigated. Interns, residents in surgery and internal medicine, surgeons, and internists were asked to make treatment decisions for three different cases (acute appendicitis, angina pectoris, and an imaginary disease) and were also asked to give numerical interpretations of a series of verbal probability terms. In the second stage of the experiment the respondents received the same cases, but with numerical probability terms. The results showed no effect of context or of domain experience on the interpretation of verbal terms. Residents and experienced surgeons more often agreed on treatment decisions when chance information was presented in numerical terms as compared with verbal terms. Physicians were less confident when verbal terms were presented, but only for the less familiar decision problems. Finally, physicians turned out to be better in Bayesian reasoning when numerical terms were used. Experienced physicians were quite accurate in estimating the posterior probability in the appendicitis case, but not in the imaginary-disease case.
言语概率术语在医学实践中经常被使用。在本实验中，对医学决策中言语和数字概率术语的使用进行了研究。实习生、外科和内科住院医师、外科医生和内科医生被要求针对三种不同病例（急性阑尾炎、心绞痛和一种虚构疾病）做出治疗决策，并且还被要求对一系列言语概率术语给出数字解释。在实验的第二阶段，受访者收到相同的病例，但使用的是数字概率术语。结果表明，背景或领域经验对言语术语的解释没有影响。与言语术语相比，当以数字形式呈现概率信息时，住院医师和经验丰富的外科医生在治疗决策上更常达成一致。当呈现言语术语时，医生的信心较低，但仅针对不太熟悉的决策问题。最后，当使用数字术语时，医生在贝叶斯推理方面表现得更好。经验丰富的医生在估计阑尾炎病例的后验概率时相当准确，但在虚构疾病病例中则不然。
