Bodin Maria C, Romelsjö Anders
Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Eur Addict Res. 2007;13(3):136-43. doi: 10.1159/000101549.
Few studies have investigated predictors of short- and longer-term outcomes in relatively well functioning treatment samples.
Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors of continuous abstinence in 188 individuals during their 2nd year after private 12-step treatment in Sweden, and findings are related to a previous report on 1-year outcomes.
Individual baseline characteristics were not directly related to 2nd year outcomes, while a higher 1st-year drinking severity decreased the likelihood of 2nd-year abstinence. Satisfaction with treatment and affiliation with Alcoholics Anonymous, but not program aftercare during the 1st year increased the likelihood of 2nd-year abstinence.
Results are consistent with previous studies showing that shorter-term outcomes are likely to be maintained, and that baseline characteristics and treatment factors account less for outcomes over longer terms.
很少有研究调查功能相对良好的治疗样本中短期和长期结果的预测因素。
采用多变量逻辑回归分析来确定瑞典188名个体在接受私人12步治疗后第二年持续戒酒的预测因素，研究结果与之前一份关于1年结果的报告相关。
个体基线特征与第二年的结果没有直接关系，而第一年饮酒严重程度越高，第二年戒酒的可能性越低。对治疗的满意度和参加戒酒互助会，但第一年的项目后续护理则不会增加第二年戒酒的可能性。
结果与之前的研究一致，表明短期结果可能会持续，并且基线特征和治疗因素对长期结果的影响较小。
